CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-08-08T03:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-08-08T03:23ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48024/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the N/NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and not yet in LASCO C3 before a DSN gap begins at 2026-08-08T05:00Z. The CME is visible to the N/NW in GOES CCOR-1 but heavily obscured by the pylon. The CME is best seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption on the north central disk; the full eruption spans approximately N28E35 to N08W00, centered ~N20E10 in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is observed as filament ejecta and double ribbon flare in SDO AIA 304 first lifting around 2026-08-08T00:48Z and fully erupting at 2026-08-08T02:10Z. The CME is also seen as a prominence on the NE limb of STEREO A EUVI 195/304. Dimming, field line movement, and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 171/193. | Characterized by a jump in B_total from 5.6nT to 9.8nT, with B_z initially flipping northward and southward +-5nT. Alongside a jump in speed from ~350km/s to ~400km/s, density from 3.07p/cc to 7.09p/cc, and temperature from 45.3kK to 167kK.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-11T10:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-12T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:
#--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 60809 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Aug 2026, 1231UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Aug 2026 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 016 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Aug 2026 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 015 PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Aug 2026 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 029 Coronal mass ejections: Two filament eruptions were observed on August 08. The first was a filament eruption in the north-east quadrant seen in SDO/AIA 304 from 01:40 UTC on August 08. An associated Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 705) is visible in SOHO/LASCO- C2 to the north from 03:24 UTC and in STEREO-A/COR2 to the north east from 03:23 UTC. The second filament eruption was observed in the south east quadrant in SDO/AIA 304 from 06:00 UTC on August 08 and an associated CME (SIDC CME 706) is observed in LASCO-C2 data from 06:36 UTC August 08 to the south-east and in STEREO-A data this is seen as full halo CME. Initial analysis shows a possible glancing blow from the first CME (SIDC CME 705) early on August 12. The second CME (SIDC CME 706) is expected to be mostly ahead of the Sun-Earth line, but any possible glancing blow may be seen at Earth at interacting with the first CME arrival on August 12.Lead Time: 47.85 hour(s)
Difference: -13.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-09T10:41Z
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